Phighter's Math Lesson: Raw MITB

Phighter's Math Lesson:
RAW MITB

With today's lesson, I'll try to correctly predict the winner of the RAW MITB Match.

I'll be listing the competitors, and then factors that go against and for each of them, before telling you who you should pick.

RAW's MITB Match

Ted DiBiase
+ Maryse
+ Million Dollar Championship
- MITB Experience
- What Have You Done Lately?

There are a few things that might encourage you to choose Ted as a bit of an underdog. As you may know, Ted has brought back the Million Dollar Championship, and since then has been playing the millionaire role his father has used to play.

This has included enlisting people like Virgil, but Virgil was cut in favor of Maryse. They now seem to be doing some kind of power couple thing, though Ted on Monday did say the power couple was really him and the briefcase.

One of Ted's problems is that he's one of two people in this match that do not have MITB experience. WWE loves to play up the experience factor, which puts him at a disadvantage.

Another downside to Ted is that he's lost his flavor quicker than chewing gum, and he needs to do something impactful. Okay, he's got the Million Dollar Championship, but now he needs to do something else. A United States Championship reign? Possibly.

Chris Jericho
+ The Most Booed Man In WWE
+ Main Eventer
+ MITB Experience (WM21, WM24)
- Evan Bourne
+/- Downfall

I'd officially call Chris Jericho the most booed man in WWE, as the largest majority of people hates him. Before you spam the comments section going, "Ohmigosh, Cena..", let's be clear, there's a huge section of kids who loves Cena. The huge section of kids hates Jericho. The people you may, every once and a while, hear cheering for him are wrestling traditionalists, and let's be honest, most of them are heading to TNA. (I haven't the foggiest idea why. That's another article.)

A heel with that kind of booing power holding onto the briefcase brings endless amounts of storylines, not to mention he was the one the briefcase was last cashed in on. What if Swagger wins the belt on Sunday and then Jericho picks the right spot and goes after him?

Let's not forget that Jericho is still, in many people's minds, a main eventer. WWE's always comfortable handing them titles.

He didn't win MITB when he was in it at WrestleMania 21, but you know how WWE loves to talk about experience. Let's not forget that Jericho's at a different point now than he was then. He was also in Wrestlemania 24's MITB, but you've got to remember he's had a few world championships since then.

Another factor is Jericho's new show Downfall, and it works against him and for him. On one side, you have his excellent hosting skills and the possible usage of the briefcase to plug Downfall. By the way, you should catch an episode if you haven't already, it's pretty good.

On the other side, he may not be used so much because at a given point he could be taping new episodes.

Mark Henry
+ MITB Experience (WM25)
- Wasn't Originally In The Match
- Size
- What Have You Done For Me Lately?

Mark Henry was in MITB at the 25th Anniversary of WrestleMania. He's remembered in the match for catching Kofi Kingston, who tried to run up a ladder while had it closed, and slamming him onto said ladder. With WWE's love of experience, it may be the only thing he's got going for him.

He wasn't even in the original match. He was the replacement for R-Truth, who they decided it'd be cool for The Miz to injure. I'm not sure why they decided R-Truth shouldn't be in the match, but whatever.

He's so big that his size works against climbing a ladder. Not to mention that I think he'd be dead-beat tired by the time he got up there.

Mark also has done nothing memorable recently. I forgot he was even in WWE, to be honest. That's a bad sign.

Evan Bourne
+ The "WOW" Factor
+ Chris Jericho
+ MITB Experience (WM26)
- Star Power

I don't know about you, but I love Evan in MITB because of the "WOW" factor. If you think said factor does not exist, then do yourself a favor and watch Monday's Orton vs. Edge....and then watch THE SHOOTING STAR PRESS GET MET WITH AN RKO!!!

Another thing Bourne's got going for him is that the WWE seems to be done jobbing him out to everyone, and Evan actually has some victories over Chris Jericho, a former World Champion.

Now that I think about it, Evan was in Wrestlemania 26's MITB...it's a funny thing what a few months will do to your memory. Again, WWE likes to play up the experience factor.

The only problem with Evan Bourne is that he doesn't have star power yet. While he is cool, he's not the reason you sit down and watch RAW.

John Morrison
+ Who Doesn't Like Him?
+ Athletic Ability
+ MITB Experience (WM24)
- What Have You Done For Me Lately?

I can't figure out who doesn't like Morrison. I really can't. He's just all-around awesome, and I can't really say much more.

He's very athletically-gifted...see the finisher he hits night after night, the Starship Pain, for proof. Or the Flying Chuck. Or the flips he can do off of the ropes onto people outside of the ring. Or anything else athletic that I can't think of that he does.

He's even been in MITB, where's he famous for backflipping off of the turnbuckle onto a group with a ladder in his hands. Remember that? It was at Wrestlemania 24.

He hasn't done anything since getting drafted to RAW though, which is really one of his only concerns. It's a problem when it comes to winning MITB.

Edge
+ Main Eventer
+ MITB Experience (WM21, WM23)
+/- Winning MITB
+/- The Bank Teller
- Heel Turn
- Randy Orton

Edge is a main eventer already, which means the WWE writers are comfortable using him. That's an advantage in today's WWE, where they like going with the people they're comfortable using, hence why you see a new competitor in the World Championship matches only every five months or so.

Edge has been in two MITBs, and I must have talked about why this is important eight times.

Edge has won MITB once already. When CM Punk won back-to-back, it was tacky, so I don't think WWE wants to do it again.

Edge is known as the Bank Teller because every time MITB has been cashed in he's been either the one cashing it in, cashed upon, or the one who did the hard work for the casher. Don't believe me? Go look it up.

Believe me now? Moving on.

Edge's heel turn is...lame. I mean, come on. We have face Edge, something we've been waiting for, and not only does that fail, but Edge doesn't really draw any feeling, it's kind of weird.

But it's not as weird as his creepy obsession with Orton.

The Miz
+ Budding Superstardom
+/- United States Championship
- MITB Experience
- R-Truth

The Miz seems to be that one big win away from a world championship. Since the Royal Rumble doesn't seem to be where he'll manage to win, MITB is his best option. After all, he's one of RAW's top heels.

The United States Championship can be viewed negatively or positively depending on how you look at it. On the positive side, it's a championship. On the negative side, he lost it to Bret Hart and R-Truth, both of whom are lackluster.

Oh, and no champion has ever won MITB. Ever.

He's also never been in MITB, and how many more times do I have to talk about WWE's love of experience for you to get what I mean?

R-Truth is on here because Miz took him out. If WWE wants to be smart, R-Truth running in to keep Miz from winning could provide a new spark to their feud. It's been done with Matt Hardy against MVP, so why not now?

Randy Orton
+ Main Eventer
+ Last Few Weeks' Push
+ MITB Experience (WM23)
- Edge

Randy Orton's a maineventer. It's always good to be one of those in WWE, like I've said earlier. Orton sells tickets and puts behinds in seats.

Ever since they've started hyping MITB, Orton's been doing really good. He's won a few matches, and he's looked like the favorite to win the match. Let's not forget the sick RKO on Bourne from Monday on RAW, alright? He looks invincible for crying out loud.

If I say the word experience one more time in this article, I might snap. You all get it by now, right? WWE loves it.

Orton's only problem is that I kind of feel like his rivalry with Edge isn't done yet. With SummerSlam right around the corner, Edge could totally screw Orton out of winning MITB, setting up a final match (at least for a while) between the two at SummerSlam.

The Math Part

We will now be assigning values to the factors to find each competitor's chance of winning. Pay attention if you want to get snooty and correct me.

+/-: It will mean -10% chance and +10% chance. We will have two final percentages for these competitors.

What Have You Done Lately For Me: It's -15% chance.

MITB Experience: +10% chance for each MITB Match, -10% chance for no competition.

+ Name: +15%

- Name: -15%

Random Positive Factor: Anything not specifically named in this section that is positive is +10% chance.

Random Negative Factor: Anything not specially named in this section is -10% chance.

Totals

Ted DiBiase (0% Chance)
Chris Jericho (35% or 15% Chance)
Mark Henry (-25% Chance)
Evan Bourne (25% Chance)
John Morrison (15% Chance)
Edge (25% or -15% Chance)
The Miz (-5% or -25% Chance)
Randy Orton (15% Chance)

Personally, I think these numbers are a bit off. So let's add to these totals.

A World Heavywight/WWE Championship is worth 10% Chance.
A United States/Intercontential Championship is worth 8% Chance.
A Tagteam Championship is worth 5% Chance.
A Championship no longer defended in WWE is worth 3% Chance.

Additions

Ted DiBiase
+3% (Million Dollar Championship)

His chance moves up to 3%. Better than nothing, eh?

Chris Jericho
+40% (WWE Championship, World Heavyweight Championships)
+72% (Intercontentinal Championships)

This brings Jericho's total to 147% or 127%.

Mark Henry
+6% (ECW Championship, European Championship)

He's up at a mighty -17%. Fail.

Evan Bourne

Evan hasn't won a championship yet, so he's still at 25%.

John Morrison
+24% (Intercontinental Championships)
+25% (Tagteam Championships)
+3% (ECW Championship)

Morrison moves up to 67%.

Edge
+90% (WWE Championships, World Heavyweight Championships)
+48% (Intercontinental Championships, United States Championship)
+70% (Tagteam Championships)

223% or 197% chance. Wow.

The Miz
+20% (Tagteam Championships)
+16% (United States Championships)

Miz gets out of the negatives, moving up to 31% or 6%, which is still more than Henry.

Randy Orton
+5% (Tagteam Championship)
+60% (WWE Championships, World Heavyweight Championship)
+8% (Intercontinental Championship)

This brings Orton up to an 88% chance of winning the match.

New Totals

Ted DiBiase (3%)
Chris Jericho (147% or 127%)
Mark Henry (-17%)
Evan Bourne (25%)
John Morrison (67%)
Edge (223% or 197%)
The Miz (31% or 6%)
Randy Orton (88%)

Since some of these numbers are super negative and super positive, I have decided anyone lower than zero and/or higher than one hundred will not win the match. This cuts it down to:

Ted DiBiase (3%)
Evan Bourne (25%)
John Morrison (67%)
The Miz (31% or 6%)
Randy Orton (88%)

The math points to Orton, followed by Morrison, Bourne, Miz, and DiBiase. On a good day, according to the math, The Miz can be ranked higher than Bourne, but it may not be worth the risk.

But according to Phighter's math, the winner of RAW's MITB is:

Randy Orton

Comments

1. Comment #1

   TWG's Isaac Newton!
   Did u just randomly come up with that 2nd formula :P

   Posted by SM HeartBreaker on Sunday, July 18, 2010

2. Comment #2

   I think the 'What have you done lately?' factor isn't as much of a problem any more, now that Jack Swagger has won the MITB, just weeks after an epic feud with Santino.
   
   I reckon they might use the MITB matches to switch someone to Smackdown, with all the injuries happening over there at the moment. I'm hoping for a Morrison main event push on Smackdown, since I've no idea why they moved him over in the first place

   Posted by The General on Sunday, July 18, 2010

3. Comment #3

   I don't have much to say you basically summed up what I thought. But, based on my very strong opinion...
   
   If Morrison loses, I riot. :D

   Posted by Trevor Goodnight on Sunday, July 18, 2010

4. Comment #4

   This makes absolutely no sense to anyone except you and is not in anyway news or anything to do with wrestling. I cant believe they let you post this.

   Posted by Buzzsaw on Sunday, July 18, 2010

5. Comment #5

   I'm liking Mark Henry's chances

   Posted by The War Machine on Sunday, July 18, 2010

6. Comment #6

   Im almost positive that Mark Henry is just there to play the Kane role. Which is basically just be strong so you can pick things up and throw things as Kane does.

   Posted by Adam Rage on Monday, July 19, 2010

7. Comment #7

   Dude i have no idea what the hell just happened !!!

   Posted by Ragnarok on Sunday, July 18, 2010

8. Comment #8

   @Ragnarok: haha!

   Posted by Imogulator on Sunday, July 18, 2010

9. Comment #9

   love it!!! Awesome concept!! Keep it up!!
   P.S. If you don't understand this article, grab a calculator. Or ask someone with a higher IQ than that of a Ritz cracker.

   Posted by The Honky Tonky Man on Thursday, July 22, 2010

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